The number of nursing graduates needs to double to meet a projected 15,000 nursing shortfall by 2035.
And action is needed quickly as the lack of clinical placements currently restricting nursing student numbers would “inevitably result in nursing shortages without a supply/side intervention by 2015”.
These are the finding of The Future Nursing Workforce: Supply Projections 2010-2035 report just released by the Nursing Council of New Zealand.
While some of the key findings of the report, commissioned last year from the economic research firm BERL, had been announced by council CEO Carolyn Reed (see Nursing Review July News Feed) the full 56-page report has only now been published online.
The report was commissioned in the wake of concerns about the projected increase in demand for health care with the number of over-65-year olds expected to double between 2010 and 2035 to 1.2 million at the same as worldwide predictions of nursing shortages.
The research found that carrying on with producing the same number of nurse graduates (see scenarios below) would result in the New Zealand nursing workforce growing to around 54,000 in 2035 which is about 15,000 short on the nearly 70,000 needed to look after the ageing population.
And with over 50% of the present nursing workforce predicted to retire by 2035 the BERL report predicts the supply of nurses needs to increase substantially from 2020 onwards as the nursing shortage starts to hit.
To train enough nurses to meet the predicted 15,000 shortfall the number of graduates would have to grow from 1430 in 2010 to 2040 a year by 2025 and 2950 a year in 2035. This more than doubling the number of graduates would require developing new clinical education models to cater for the number of students.
It says nursing schools argue that some of the concerns about clinical placements for students could be through the use of dedicated education units, e-learning and clinical simulation.
“However, it is difficult for a student nurse to gain confidence in their ability without being in a ‘real life’ situation,”’ says the report. “In short, a range of clinical learning models may need to be explored towards 2035.”
New Zealand has been highly reliant on overseas-trained nurses (25 per cent of the workforce) to bolster our nursing numbers and a scenario is put forward to meet the shortfall by recruiting more overseas nurses but it adds that with a nursing shortfall predicted worldwide New Zealand may struggle to attract sufficient nurses and may also lose more New Zealand-trained nurses across the Tasman.
A fourth scenario looked at is possibility of nursing graduate numbers declining from the current level due to potential factors including a cap being placed on nursing student numbers, nursing schools struggling to place students in clinical placements or nursing becoming an unattractive career option. It also noted the need for targeted initiatives to increase the number of nursing graduates from Māori and Pacific communities to better reflect population needs.
SCENARIOS…NOW & 2035
- Current Scenario: In 2010 there were 45,460 nurses working in NZ (42,330 are registered nurses) or approx 10 nurses for every 1000 New Zealanders
- “Business as usual” Scenario: If carry on with same number of nursing graduates and same recruitment/retention trends as 2010 the nursing workforce will grow to about 54,000 nurses in 2035.
- Population growth-only scenario: To maintain the same 10 nurses for every 1000 Kiwis in 2035, graduate nurses numbers would have to increase from current 1500 a year to 2,200 a year by 2035 and the nursing workforce overall would need to grow by about 500 plus RNs & ENs a year to reach nearly 60,000 by 2035
- Meeting ageing population needs scenario: To meet the high health needs of the high proportion of people under 15 and over 65 in 2035 the number of new graduates would have to roughly double to nearly 3000 a year by 2035 to build a nurse workforce of just under 70,000 (64,000 RNs and 5000 plus ENs).
See full report at: www.nursingcouncil.org.nz/News/The-Future-Nursing-Workforce
