Hospitals and regions that missed the worst of last year’ swine flu pandemic could face higher rates of flu and hospitalisations this year, the Ministry of Health is predicting.
In a press release, (August 4) the Ministry says the latest data shows the country is now in the second wave of pandemic influenza with flu rates increasing significantly, particularly in the top half of the North Island. As of last week 158 people had been admitted to hospital for swine flu in 2010.
Director of Public Health Dr Mark Jactobs said so far the second wave had been ‘patchy’ and it might be that regions hit less by the flu last year could see more this time round.
He said a relatively crude guide was that district health boards with lower rates of hospitalisations last year could have greater numbers of people still susceptible to the disease, and so higher rates this year.
Three DHBs have already reported higher rates of people hospitalised with influenza pandemic (H1N1) swine flu than they did last year - they are Bay of Plenty, Lakes and Taranaki. These DHBs had low hospitalisation rates last year.
DHBs with low rates last year which are seeing quite a lot of early influenza activity this year are Waikato, South Canterbury and MidCentral DHBs. Other DHBs with low rates last year were Otago, West Coast, Wairarapa, Whanganui, Nelson Marlborough and Southland.
At the other end of the scale it was expected Capital and Coast, Hutt and Tairawhiti DHBs to be hit less hard this year because they were hit hard last year.
Dr Jacobs says individuals can still be vaccinated. There remains 15,500 doses of seasonal vaccine left, though the vaccine does take up to two weeks for the vaccine to provide protection and young children require two shots three weeks apart to be protected. So for anyone still thinking about getting vaccinated, now is the time to do it.
